How NOT to Play Defense: Maple Leafs Edition

As I'm sure most hockey fans do, I tend to watch the highlights of the night's games. Whilst watching the highlights of the Leafs-Bruins game, I wasn't too surprised to see them losing, but this goal in particular boggled my mind.

Are you ready for some more MS Paint? Good.

Here, we see two Leafs forwards (Dave Steckel and Tim Connolly) covering the same guy at the point: Patrice Bergeron. Um. Why? Bergeron makes a quick pass to a wide open Zdeno Chara, and, newsflash: this guy's good at hockey. Chara then has all the time he wants to do whatever he wants with the puck. The two Leafs defensemen in front of the net (Schenn and Gardiner) seem to be doing their job for the most part. However, as Chara moves in, Schenn inches closer to him and even goes down on a knee to try and take away a cross-crease pass. I have no issue with that. Jake Gardiner then inches away from Caron (eventual goalscorer) which allows Caron to get free for Chara's pass.

Now, even though Gardiner leaves Caron wide open for one of the easiest goals he'll ever score, I'm more bothered by the forwards (Steckel and Connolly). Had they both not been at the point holding hands and enjoying a cup of tea, this could have been easily prevented. One of them covers Bergeron, the other follows Chara, and then Schenn and Gardiner don't have to react based on the play that's developed.

Who knows? Maybe I'm overlooking something or maybe I'm flat out wrong about this, but it all seems pretty logical to me. I'm sure (I'm not, I'm just hoping) Randy Carlyle and Brian Burke will somehow eventually fix this, though, so no worries, Leafs Nation.

Why the Grabovski Signing is Actually Really Good

At first glance, $5.5 million for five years for a guy that has a career high of 58 points and only 45 so far this season may seem to be a bit of an overpayment. I suppose if you look at everything in just terms of goals and assists, then sure, it could be a slight overpayment, but let's take into account more than just the standard goals and assists with Grabovski, shall we?

I noticed on Twitter today that people were comparing the James Neal and Grabovski contracts. Yes, Neal is younger, has more goals than Grabbo, and has a slightly cheaper deal, but there are some big differences between the two as players.

First of all, Neal would have been an RFA, while Mikhail would have been a UFA. You can't compare those two. Apples and oranges, folks. If Grabbo would have hit the open market, there's a good chance he would have gotten a lot more than $5.5 million.

On top of that, Grabovski is a very good 28 year old, two-way, defensively responsible centerman. This isn't taking anything away from Neal at all, because I love the kid, he's a great player, but there are some often overlooked, underlying factors with each team and player: the advanced stats. No, not many people know what they are, and if they do, they don't usually buy into them. What it comes down to, however, is that these so-called "fancy stats" are pretty accurate, and have even predicted a team's collapse after a rather great start to the season. I recommend you check out the Behind the Net articles on advanced stats and why they actually matter.

Anyways, back to the matter at hand here...the Grabovski contract is a really good deal for Toronto. Comparing his advanced stats and James Neal's shows there are some minor and major differences between the two players. Without going on and on and on about stuff no one cares about, two of the biggest differences are the offensive zone start percentage, and the quality of competition for Neal and Grabbo. Neal starts the majority of his shifts in the offensive zone, meaning he's logically going to get more chances to score, or get a scoring chance. Grabovski on the other hand, is about 50/50 with his zone starts. This is a testament to how good defensively he is and how much the coaches trust him in their own end and also ties in with the quality of competition. Again, without going on and lecturing about it, think about what that could mean. Quality of Competition. The quality of players that Grabovski or Neal tend to pair up against. Being that Grabovski is relied on defensively as well, he faces tougher competition, so on and so forth. Now, add all this to the fact that he can still put up points while playing with sub-par linemates...and I'd say you have quite a steal of a player on your team.

Again, I'm not taking anything away from Neal, he's one of the best goal scorers in the league (albeit he plays with Malkin 99.99999% of the time, but either way), I'm just saying why the Grabovski deal is pretty fair for both sides.

Another thing that was pointed out on the good ol' Interwebs today, was the market inflation. $5.5 million is 8.5% of the current salary cap.

So, with that information, 8.5% of the previous salary caps would be: $3.32 million, $3.74, $4.28, $4.82, $4.83, and $5.05 for last season. In English, Grabovski's not overpaid, it's just inflation combined with being really good at hockey. That's all.

Could Kulemin's Newborn Baby be Good Luck?

Let's hope so. The guy is having a less than stellar season so far, especially after having what appeared to be a breakout last year. He played all 82 games last year and tallied 30 goals, 27 assists, and finished with a +7 rating. This season, through 55 games, he has a whopping 5 goals and 18 assists, which factors out to be roughly .42 points per game. Not exactly what he or his teammates were hoping for, I'm sure.

It was announced on Twitter that he missed practice today to be with his wife who went into labor. So, congratulations on that one, Nik. That's pretty awesome. However, how could a newborn baby be of any luck to an athlete? Well, let's look back to last year.

Kulemin's regular centerman, Mikhail Grabovski, wasn't having the greatest start of the season last year. Through some research on hockey-reference (if you haven't been there, you're missing out), I found that through the first 35 games last season, Grabbo had 13 goals, 14 assists with a +1 rating. That ends up being about .77 points per game. That's not all that bad, I suppose, but I remember him getting a lot of crap about not producing enough. Fast forward to December 30, and his girlfriend goes into labor and gives birth to their daughter. Now, I don't know if or how this would have any real affect on how an athlete performs, but it sure seemed to be the case. From that point on to the present day, Grabovski has played in 95 games, while tallying 34 goals and 50 assists, which comes out to .88 points per game--a significant increase, I'd say.

So yeah. Let's hope Kule's kid sparks a fire under him too. The Leafs are going to need all the help they can get if they're going to continue this playoff push.

Is Luke Schenn overrated?

So the other day on the Tweeter machine, I found this (I had to cut/paste, so forgive me if it's not Mona Lisa quality):

This guy, @67Sound, went on afterwards with some other stats that I won't bore you with, but the gist of everything was that when Schenn or Komisarek are on the ice for the PK, there are more shots getting through, and subsequently more goals. I found this interesting because I'm a fan of Schenn. I conversed with a couple of buddies of mine whom are Leafs fans about this and they weren't too surprised. The general consensus was that it's because Schenn tends to go for the big hit a lot, which puts him out of position.

So what do you do with Mr. Schenn? You have a young, talented, defensive defenseman who struggles on the PK, which has been near the bottom of the league for the last few years. Do you overlook it and say he'll improve because he's so young? Very plausible. Or perhaps Burke should try and trade him and get a nice return for him, hoping no one else notices Schenn's flaws? It seems a lot of people would love to have a young guy like Schenn on their team, but maybe it's in the best interest of the Leafs to package him in a deal for something they need?

Time will tell, I suppose.

"Hockeytown vs The Center of the Hockey Universe"

That quote, along with the fact that Brian Burke never does his tie or top button of his shirt reaffirms that he's one of my favorites in the league. Either way though, it's official now. Leafs vs Red Wings next year for the Winter Classic.

One bummer for now though, is that there's currently no deal for HBO's 24/7. Granted, they have 10 months before they would start filming, but dang. Get that done, that's gonna be the best series yet. If 24/7 ends up being an annual thing, I have a good feeling it's just going to get progressively better; at least that's how it appeared this season. I didn't think it was possible to get better than the Penguins/Capitals series, yet HBO showed themselves up and the Rangers/Flyers was outstanding.

I'm basically just repeating myself here from last night/earlier this morning (that's what happens with minimal sleep, I suppose), but I'm really excited for the alumni game. Kris Draper said he's for sure playing. Even Shanaban said he would do it and he would try to convince Stevie Y to join (!!!!). I have one request, however: The Grind Line. If Draper's in, Maltby and McCarty have to do it. At the very least, Joe Kocur. Maybe Burke can put Colton Orr in for the alumni game so Joey has someone to dance with. What? Orr has to be retired first? Oh. Well, sorry, Joey.

The press release quoted Bettman and the bunch (that sounds like some awful TV show: Bettman and the Bunch) that there will be 115,000 tickets available and that they hope to push the attendance record and such. Holy crap. Also, there is/was a pre-sale site for the tickets, but I read on Twitter at one point that it crashed. How much you wanna bet tickets sell out within an hour?

Take that, Winnipeg.

2013 Winter Classic to be Hosted by Detroit

So, if you haven't heard by now, there's a "major announcement" in Ann Arbor and Detroit, Michigan later today/early this morning. Just like last year in Philadelphia, it's the worst kept secret that the announcement will be that the Winter Classic will be in Michigan next year, featuring the hometown Red Wings and the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is good for the league and for the state of Michigan. It's win-win, really.

The NHL will get a ton of publicity having the outdoor event at Michigan Stadium with over 100,000 people surely attending. Also, throughout the weekend, there will be plenty of other outdoor games going on in Detroit at Comerica Park. The Great Lakes Invitational, usually held at Joe Louis Arena, will be a feature that weekend, along with a couple OHL games, an AHL game featuring the Marlies and Griffins (the Leafs and Wings respective AHL teams), and also the ever famous alumni game. You think Stevie Y will take a break from managing down in Florida to play? That'd be pretty interesting, to say the least. Perhaps a regrouping of the Russian Five? Or maybe Wendel Clark, Dougie Gilmour, or any other past Leafs? I can't begin to fathom the revenue that will be brought in from all those events. No matter what, that weekend surely won't disappoint.

One other thing: HBO's 24/7 might be the best yet next season with these two teams. Ron Wilson, Brian Burke, Mike Babcock...three guys that aren't afraid to say what they feel, all uncensored and on camera? Hoo, boy. Laviolette and Tortorella will definitely have some competition, that's for sure.

Anyways, cheers to you, Michigan. Now let's hope the weather is a little more wintery than in Philadelphia this season.





A view of an outdoor game at Michigan Stadium between Michigan State University and the University of Michigan.