At first glance, $5.5 million for five years for a guy that has a career high of 58 points and only 45 so far this season may seem to be a bit of an overpayment. I suppose if you look at everything in just terms of goals and assists, then sure, it could be a slight overpayment, but let's take into account more than just the standard goals and assists with Grabovski, shall we?
I noticed on Twitter today that people were comparing the James Neal and Grabovski contracts. Yes, Neal is younger, has more goals than Grabbo, and has a slightly cheaper deal, but there are some big differences between the two as players.
First of all, Neal would have been an RFA, while Mikhail would have been a UFA. You can't compare those two. Apples and oranges, folks. If Grabbo would have hit the open market, there's a good chance he would have gotten a lot more than $5.5 million.
On top of that, Grabovski is a very good 28 year old, two-way, defensively responsible centerman. This isn't taking anything away from Neal at all, because I love the kid, he's a great player, but there are some often overlooked, underlying factors with each team and player: the advanced stats. No, not many people know what they are, and if they do, they don't usually buy into them. What it comes down to, however, is that these so-called "fancy stats" are pretty accurate, and have even predicted a team's collapse after a rather great start to the season. I recommend you check out the Behind the Net articles on advanced stats and why they actually matter.
Anyways, back to the matter at hand here...the Grabovski contract is a really good deal for Toronto. Comparing his advanced stats and James Neal's shows there are some minor and major differences between the two players. Without going on and on and on about stuff no one cares about, two of the biggest differences are the offensive zone start percentage, and the quality of competition for Neal and Grabbo. Neal starts the majority of his shifts in the offensive zone, meaning he's logically going to get more chances to score, or get a scoring chance. Grabovski on the other hand, is about 50/50 with his zone starts. This is a testament to how good defensively he is and how much the coaches trust him in their own end and also ties in with the quality of competition. Again, without going on and lecturing about it, think about what that could mean. Quality of Competition. The quality of players that Grabovski or Neal tend to pair up against. Being that Grabovski is relied on defensively as well, he faces tougher competition, so on and so forth. Now, add all this to the fact that he can still put up points while playing with sub-par linemates...and I'd say you have quite a steal of a player on your team.
Again, I'm not taking anything away from Neal, he's one of the best goal scorers in the league (albeit he plays with Malkin 99.99999% of the time, but either way), I'm just saying why the Grabovski deal is pretty fair for both sides.
Another thing that was pointed out on the good ol' Interwebs today, was the market inflation. $5.5 million is 8.5% of the current salary cap.
So, with that information, 8.5% of the previous salary caps would be: $3.32 million, $3.74, $4.28, $4.82, $4.83, and $5.05 for last season. In English, Grabovski's not overpaid, it's just inflation combined with being really good at hockey. That's all.
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